\u201eThe Ener\u00adgy sec\u00adtor is under high pres\u00adsure f\u00fcr inno\u00adva\u00adtion right now. It\u00b4s not accus\u00admomed to it.\u201c<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
At the moment around 95 per\u00adcent of glob\u00adal transportation\u2014trains, planes and automobiles\u2014uses fos\u00adsil fuels, with heat\u00ading and cool\u00ading at around 75 per\u00adcent. The pro\u00adpor\u00adtion of fos\u00adsil fuels will sink rapid\u00adly for both\u2014and be replaced by elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty. Cars cur\u00adrent\u00adly pow\u00adered by diesel will run on elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty in the future, and so on. This alone will dou\u00adble the demand for elec- tric\u00adi\u00adty, even with the fore\u00adcast\u00aded effects from ener\u00adgy effi\u00adcien\u00adcy mea\u00adsures already being tak\u00aden into account.<\/p>\n
Well, a lot! There is the polit\u00adi\u00adcal will in many coun\u00adtries. The cli\u00admate cri\u00adsis is mov\u00ading us in that direc\u00adtion. But don\u2019t get me wrong, you don\u2019t have to be an envi\u00adron\u00admen\u00adtal\u00adist to bet on wind and solar. You just need to be able to do the math. In the US, for ex-ample, where the pres\u00adi\u00addent has tout-ed \u201cclean coal\u201d in recent years, a coal pow\u00ader sta\u00adtion has closed down every two weeks on aver\u00adage. And will stay closed for\u00adev\u00ader. Because it\u2019s no longer worth it for the oper\u00ada\u00adtors.<\/p>\n
And with solar ener\u00adgy, we have long since hit the turn\u00ading point in terms of price. You would have to be rather stu\u00adpid not to put pho\u00adto\u00advolta\u00adic cells on a new\u00adly con\u00adstruct\u00aded roof\u2014no mat\u00adter whether you are build\u00ading a hut in Yemen or an indus\u00adtri\u00adal plant in Switzer\u00adland.<\/p>\n
The peri\u00adod for a return on invest\u00adment is about six to eight years in Europe and the US. If you com\u00adpare that with the equi\u00adty mar\u00adket, it cor\u00adre\u00adsponds to a return of about eight per\u00adcent. The solar sys\u00adtem pays for itself and, in the mean\u00adtime, pro\u00adduces clean ener\u00adgy for you.<\/p>\n
We are cur\u00adrent\u00adly build\u00ading the inter\u00adnet of ener\u00adgy. By that I mean a breath\u00ading grid, which first of all dis\u00adtrib\u00adutes loads intel\u00adli\u00adgent\u00adly and, sec\u00adond\u00adly, adjusts to volatile avail\u00adabil\u00adi\u00adty. Let me explain: Volatil\u00adi\u00adty sim\u00adply means that the sun doesn\u2019t always shine and the wind doesn\u2019t always blow. More wind and solar pow\u00ader in the ener\u00adgy mix there\u00adfore lead to greater fluc\u00adtu\u00ada\u00adtions in the sup\u00adply.<\/p>\n
This is com\u00admon knowl\u00adedge nowa\u00addays, I think. Intel\u00adli\u00adgent distribution\u2014this means ensur\u00ading that over\u00adloads are pre\u00advent\u00aded. There are two pos\u00adsi\u00adble solu\u00adtions for both of these: Ener\u00adgy accu\u00admu\u00adla\u00adtors and smart grids. This is equip\u00adment that can detect, pre\u00addict and respond to con\u00adsump\u00adtion pat\u00adterns.<\/p>\n
Sure. Breath\u00ading grids draw ener\u00adgy in when it is avail\u00adable, store it tem\u00adporar\u00adi\u00adly, and then let it out when ener\u00adgy is need\u00aded. In this regard, elec\u00adtric cars will present both a prob\u00adlem as well as a solu\u00adtion at the same time. When you buy an elec\u00adtric car, you dou\u00adble your elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty require\u00adments in one fell swoop. But you sud\u00adden\u00adly also have an intel\u00adli\u00adgent\u00adly con\u00adtrolled ener\u00adgy accu\u00admu\u00adla\u00adtor \u2014 the bat\u00adtery.<\/p>\n
\u201eElec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty con\u00adsump\u00adtion will dou\u00adble. That is why we need intel\u00adli\u00adgend, breath\u00ading pow\u00ader grids.\u201c<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
For the sake of sim\u00adplic\u00adi\u00adty, take a sin\u00adgle-fam\u00adi\u00adly house, ide\u00adal\u00adly a smart home. When every\u00adone comes home in the evenings, plugs the car in to charge, turns on the lights, tele\u00advi\u00adsion, stove\u2014electricity require\u00adments increase dra\u00admat\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly all of a sud\u00adden. If all your neigh\u00adbors are also doing the same, the grid won\u2019t be able to han\u00addle it any\u00admore.<\/p>\n
But the car is not stu\u00adpid, it can say, I\u2019ll charge myself lat\u00ader when every\u00adone has gone to sleep. Or it can charge dur\u00ading the day, when the sun is shin\u00ading, and pro\u00advide elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty from its bat\u00adtery to the smart home in the evening, thus unbur\u00adden\u00ading the grids. I think there will also be a new price mech\u00ada\u00adnism that sup\u00adports this behav\u00adior.<\/p>\n
What kind of price mechanism?<\/h3>\n
We will get vari\u00adable elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty rates down to the con\u00adsumer lev\u00adel. Almost all prices of goods fol\u00adlow a log\u00adic of sup\u00adply and demand. A car\u00adton of straw\u00adber\u00adries costs 99 cents in Ger\u00admany in June because there are tons of them local\u00adly, and 4.99 euros in win\u00adter because they are flown in spe\u00adcial\u00adly from Moroc\u00adco. If they were sold for 2.99 euros all year round, that would cre\u00adate the wrong incen\u00adtives.<\/p>\n
In win\u00adter, more straw\u00adber\u00adries would be flown in from Moroc\u00adco and in sum\u00admer, the Ger\u00adman crops would rot because they would be too expen\u00adsive for peo\u00adple. With elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty, how\u00adev\u00ader, end con\u00adsumers today pay per kilo\u00adwatt hour, no mat\u00adter when they get it. Renew\u00adable elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty, how\u00adev\u00ader, is like the straw\u00adber\u00adries: We always have either too much or too lit\u00adtle. This will also be reflect\u00aded in the price. Intel\u00adli\u00adgent con\u00adtrol \u2014 that would require a lot of soft\u00adware and, where pos\u00adsi\u00adble, even arti\u00adfi\u00adcial intel\u00adli\u00adgence.<\/p>\n
What will earn the most money in the future of the energy sector, software or hardware?<\/h3>\n
I think both will remain prof\u00aditable busi\u00adness fields, includ\u00ading grid infra\u00adstruc\u00adture. The vision of more autonomous ener\u00adgy units has exist\u00aded for a while\u2014houses, fac\u00adto\u00adries or entire com\u00admer\u00adcial areas. I\u2019m skep\u00adti\u00adcal of that. I think all con\u00adsumers will con\u00adtin\u00adue to be reliant on a dis\u00adtri\u00adb\u00adu\u00adtion grid that is main\u00adtained by tra\u00addi\u00adtion\u00adal providers and util\u00adi\u00adties. This is also just the most sen\u00adsi\u00adble solu\u00adtion. One thing is clear, how\u00adev\u00ader: The ener\u00adgy indus\u00adtry is under high pres\u00adsure to inno\u00advate right now. But it\u2019s not accus\u00adtomed to this.<\/p>\n
Will the energy industry succeed?<\/h3>\n
Good ques\u00adtion. I\u2019ve been fol\u00adlow\u00ading the dis\u00adcus\u00adsion about smart meters for about 20 years. The indus\u00adtry says, we need 20 to 30 years to roll these out. Com\u00adpared to oth\u00ader indus\u00adtries, such a state\u00adment is unusu\u00adal, to say the least. If you just look at the sales fig\u00adures of elec\u00adtric cars and plug-in hybrids, we are already only 150 weeks from the point when our grids won\u2019t be able to han\u00addle it any\u00admore.<\/p>\n
We won\u2019t solve the prob\u00adlem by build\u00ading gigan\u00adtic trans\u00adform\u00aders, dig\u00adging up every street and dou\u00adbling cable cross-sec\u00adtions. It will only work with smart tech\u00adnol\u00ado\u00adgy that dis\u00adtrib\u00adutes the load intel\u00adli\u00adgent\u00adly. Now the ener\u00adgy sec\u00adtor is say\u00ading, oh God, we need to be ready in two, three years with new prod\u00aducts, tech\u00adnolo\u00adgies and soft\u00adware. They have nev\u00ader been in this sit\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtion!<\/p>\n
Couldn\u2019t the energy industry just remain stubborn and prolong the transformation?<\/h3>\n
Yes, to a cer\u00adtain extent, it could do that. The mar\u00adket is reg\u00adu\u00adlat\u00aded and re quires high start-up costs. This pro\u00adtects estab\u00adlished com\u00adpa\u00adnies from com\u00adpe\u00adti\u00adtion in many ways, espe\u00adcial\u00adly on the hard\u00adware and infra\u00adstruc\u00adture side.<\/p>\n
\u201eFor the first time in decades, invest\u00adments will pay off quick\u00adly.\u201c<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
How\u00adev\u00ader, there are two rea\u00adsons why I believe that the indus\u00adtry will nonethe\u00adless fol\u00adlow the inno\u00adva\u00adtion pres\u00adsure. First, these com\u00adpa\u00adnies won\u2019t want to miss out on the impor\u00adtant busi\u00adness field of soft\u00adware and AI solu\u00adtions. Com\u00adpa\u00adnies like IBM or Google are already at the start\u00ading block here. But the ener\u00adgy indus\u00adtry still has the oppor\u00adtu\u00adni\u00adty to take things into its own hands if it makes the effort now.<\/p>\n
And sec\u00adond\u00adly, which seems to me to be even more impor\u00adtant: For the first time in many decades, the ener\u00adgy indus\u00adtry is in a phase where invest\u00adment in inno\u00adva\u00adtions will actu-ally pay off quick\u00adly. This will ensure suf\u00adfi\u00adcient action.<\/p>\n
But what innovations are we talking about, exactly?<\/h3>\n
In addi\u00adtion to the soft\u00adware I men\u00adtioned: Switch\u00ading, mea\u00adsur\u00ading and reg\u00adu\u00adlat\u00ading loads. Con\u00advert\u00aders, invert\u00aders, trans\u00adformer tech\u00adnol\u00ado\u00adgy. Due to the vari\u00adety of new, dis\u00adpersed ener\u00adgy sources and inter\u00adme\u00addi\u00adate stor\u00adage units, we will need many more of these sys\u00adtems than we did before.<\/p>\n
Speaking of dispersed energy production, is the trend moving in that direction?<\/h3>\n
Yes, but not exclu\u00adsive\u00adly. It\u2019s not black and white. At the same time, there will also be large cen\u00adtral\u00adized ener\u00adgy sources, such as giant solar parks at the equa\u00adtor or in the desert, where sun\u00adshine is reli\u00adable, or large off\u00adshore wind parks. Which brings us to the next major chal\u00adlenge: Trans\u00adport\u00ading elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty over large dis\u00adtances via high-volt\u00adage DC trans\u00admis\u00adsion or HVDC lines. There are inter\u00adest\u00ading ideas there.<\/p>\n
What ideas?<\/h3>\n
With an eye on solar ener\u00adgy, the Chi\u00adnese have sug\u00adgest\u00aded a type of ener\u00adgy back\u00adbone for the earth, that is, a thick HVDC trans\u00admis\u00adsion cable that wraps around the equa\u00adtor, with lines branch\u00ading off from it. They have an impres\u00adsive\u00adly sim\u00adple argu\u00adment here: From a glob\u00adal per\u00adspec\u00adtive, it is nev\u00ader night \u2014 the sun is always shin\u00ading on one half of the earth.<\/p>\n
Around the whole globe?<\/h3>\n
That\u2019s not as much as it sounds. It\u2019s only about 40,000 kilo\u00adme\u00adters. If you gath\u00adered up all the wires in all the high-volt\u00adage lines between Munich and Ham\u00adburg, you\u2019d have the same amount. The trans\u00admis\u00adsion loss of 1.5 to 2.5 per\u00adcent per thou\u00adsand kilo\u00adme-ters is also man\u00adage\u00adable. You don\u2019t need to send every elec\u00adtron around the entire world, after all.<\/p>\n
It might be enough to con\u00adtin\u00adu\u00adous\u00adly swap the periph\u00ader\u00adal areas at the tran\u00adsi\u00adtion from day to night. I believe it will end up being some\u00adthing like that. Some say they would rather send tankers full of hydro\u00adgen around the globe. But I think it will like\u00adly come to HVDC trans\u00admis\u00adsion. And there is yet anoth\u00ader big project ahead of us.<\/p>\n
Ugh, another big project? What is it?<\/h3>\n
Sea\u00adson\u00adal stor\u00adage facil\u00adi\u00adties, large and small, in coun\u00adtries that are not on the equator\u2014in oth\u00ader words, basi\u00adcal\u00adly in all indus\u00adtri\u00adal\u00adized coun\u00adtries. Even our ances\u00adtors had these. In the win\u00adter they sawed blocks of ice out of lakes which they then packed in cel\u00adlars and cov\u00adered with straw in order to cool their beer in sum\u00admer.<\/p>\n
We should start fol\u00adlow\u00ading this prin\u00adci\u00adple again: store pow\u00ader from sun and wind when we have them in excess, and thus bridge the sea\u00adsons in which there is a pre\u00adpon\u00adder\u00adance of calm and dark\u00adness. But it\u2019s not just power\u2014heat and cold can also be stored for heaters and air-con\u00addi\u00adtion\u00ading sys\u00adtems. So to answer your orig\u00adi\u00adnal question\u2014thermal and elec\u00adtri\u00adcal accu\u00admu\u00adla\u00adtors. If I were you, I would invest my mon\u00adey in these tech\u00adnolo\u00adgies. Because there\u2019s still a lot of room to inno\u00advate in these areas.<\/p>\n
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ABOUT THE PERSON<\/h2>\n
Lars Thom\u00adsen, trend researcher and futur\u00adol\u00ado\u00adgist, was born in Ham\u00adburg in 1968. He is an expert in the future of ener\u00adgy, mobil\u00adi\u00adty and smart net\u00adworks. Since the age of 22, he has pro\u00advid\u00aded con\u00adsul\u00adta\u00adtion to com\u00adpa\u00adnies, cor\u00adpo\u00adra\u00adtions, insti\u00adtu\u00adtions and those close to the gov\u00adern\u00adment in Europe in the devel\u00adop\u00adment of future strate\u00adgies as an inde\u00adpen\u00addent con\u00adtrac\u00adtor. In addi\u00adtion to his busi\u00adness activ\u00adi\u00adties, he is also a mem\u00adber of numer\u00adous think tanks as well as the World Future Soci\u00adety in Wash\u00ading\u00adton, D.C. Lars Thom\u00adsen lives with his fam\u00adi\u00adly on Lake Zurich in Switzer\u00adland.
\nwww.future-matters.com<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Futur\u00adol\u00ado\u00adgist Lars Thom\u00adsen explains the pow\u00ader grids of the future and demon\u00adstrates why the ener\u00adgy sec\u00adtor should act quick\u00adly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":6299,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-12-2020"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5893\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6299"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onload.reinhausen.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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