Electrification and the expansion of the electricity grids are the cornerstones of the energy transition. This is where the foundations for a sustainable and future-proof energy supply are being laid.
Electricity from renewable energies is already the cheapest option in most regions of the world. For example, the cost of electricity for newly commissioned photovoltaic (PV) projects fell by around 85 percent between 2010 and 2020 alone. Onshore wind power has become 56 percent cheaper and offshore wind power 48 percent cheaper. So if we look at the expansion of capacities in the electricity sector alone, the energy transition is on the right track: solar and wind technologies have consolidated their positions and, given the rising prices of fossil fuels, the economic prospects are undeniably good.
In contrast, the conversion of industrial processes as well as heating and transport are lagging far behind the targets, although the conversion of these sectors is essential. The experts at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) are looking at how the energy transition can still be achieved in light of these realities. They make it clear that the climate targets can only be achieved if fossil fuels are massively replaced by renewables now. Radical measures are needed to turn the tide. But even if the 1.5‑degree mark is broken, there is no way around a global energy transition.
Exponential growth
The next six years are crucial for success. During this time, there will be a drastic change in the way societies generate and consume energy, and the share of renewable energies must double by 2030. In addition to the mandatory expansion of wind and solar power, this will also require green hydrogen and more sustainable biomass, for all of which important foundations will be laid in the coming years. In order to save the targeted 37 gigatons of CO2 per year by 2050, the share of renewable energies must continue to grow exponentially until then.
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What sounds paradoxical is actually a side effect of the energy transition: The total global demand for primary energy will actually fall slightly by 2050 – despite growing energy demand worldwide. The explanation for this is the replacement of useful energy with renewable energy sources. This is because the majority of primary energy is saved. While wind and PV produce electricity directly, a thermal power plant generates two-thirds heat and only one-third electricity from the primary energy. The same applies to combustion engines, and a battery-powered vehicle therefore only requires a quarter to a third of the energy. Heat pumps therefore triple the energy input.
The energy industry is therefore facing major challenges. What are the next steps in this global transformation process and how will they affect the electricity grids?
Less fossil fuel
In order to achieve the global targets for reducing CO2 emissions, the proportion of fossil fuel in total energy requirements must be consistently reduced. Currently, around 80 percent of energy comes from fossil sources. By 2030, this proportion is set to fall to 60 percent and finally shrink to just 20 percent by 2050. This drastic reduction will take place while overall energy requirements remain virtually unchanged.
The gap created by the reduction in fossil fuels must be filled by renewable energies. Their share of total energy demand is set to rise from the current 20 percent to 40 percent by 2030 and ultimately to an impressive 80 percent by 2050. This marks a fundamental change in the energy supply.
The energy transition is a
global electrification program
Drivers of electrification
The key aspect of the energy transition is electrification. The share of electrical energy in total energy demand will increase from the current 20 percent to 30 percent by 2030 and ultimately to a full 50 percent by 2050. This means that the demand for electrical energy will grow by 50 percent by 2030 and more than double by 2050 (factor of 2.5). Measured in terms of connected load, by 2050 the electricity grids will even have to absorb ten times the amount of renewable generators. The figures make one thing clear: the energy transition is a global electrification program.
Network expansion
In order to cope with this dramatic increase in demand for electrical energy, the electricity grids need to be massively expanded. An energy supply that is increasingly based on electricity and wants to ensure a reliable and stable energy supply requires more powerful and, above all, more flexible grids.
New technologies and innovations play a key role in this process. Smart electricity meters, automated control systems for operating equipment, energy storage systems, efficient converters, and efficient transmission technologies will determine the success of this transformation.
The future of the energy transition therefore lies in the grids. This mammoth global project is not feasible without massive investment to build significantly more efficient grids.
Your contact person
Do you have any questions about the energy transition?
Stephan Rupp is there for you:
s.rupp@reinhausen.com
